Herd Theory
木曜日, 2 月 26th, 2009There are two topics 6 4 Carat Swarovski Garnet Crystal Dangle Earrings W I love to talk about. The first is tax, obviously. The second subject is The Economy Vera Bradley Products I think of as: Wholesale Handbags And Luggage market game of how our choices relate to the choices of others.
Momentum Investing
Momentum investing is a system of buying into an investment that has had the highest profit return of all other investments in a particular group. It doesn’t make sense from a valuation standpoint but human nature is such that if someone else is making money, everyone else wants the easy money too. This momentum investing has become so prevalent that it is causing huge distortions in our financial markets. A few examples are The Tech Bubble, the past two Real Estate Bubbles, The Credit Bubble, The Oil Bubble and now the “Flight to Safety Bubble.” This group of brash copycat investors is quite an interesting phenomenon.
Herd Theory
If you think of an investment category as a group of animals then The Herd would be the large preponderance of the animals moving together in one direction. The herd, as it grows How Much Weight Will I Loose Weekly On Nutrisystem become quite mindless in the short run as it is only driven by greed and fear. A single investor that would normally be quite prudent can become reckless as a member of The Herd.
The Markets
The Herd can only distort prices in the short run. The Market creates the price for an investment group in the long run. There are three major household investment choices: Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate. All of these investments correct to fair value in the long run. With this fair value information a long term investor can determine a historical value trend.
The Herd is only interested in the short term and a value investor chooses investments that are priced below historical value with the long run in mind. I have made the choice to stay a value investor. I call my investing philosophy the “sleep at night” portfolio. But while I focus on the long run, The Herd has made it necessary for me to focus more on short run price swings to protect my long term investments. I call these short run decisions, “Hedging the Herd.” Presently The Herd has become so large that it is distorting many investment markets. Because of these large distortions all of my long run investments are “Hedged against The Herd”.
A Bet vs. A Hedge
A Bet would be a market position with only gain or loss in mind. A hedge would be short run insurance against a long run investment. The Herd only makes short term Bets. A long term investor will hedge a position that is already owned to counteract short run price movements.
Stocks
Our country’s Stock Market is the household investment group that produces the highest returns, about 6.5% a year, not including inflation. A value investor will always be partially invested in the Stock Market but never fully invested.
Last year in 2007, The Herd was very brash and pushed up stock prices above historical value. At the time it seemed that The Herd was oblivious to the many indicators foretelling the impending Recession. I chose to have a small position in the market because of this risk. At the time I was a little worried about how I was going to gain the 5.9% a year which is my earnings goal for my retirement investments.
The situation has changed. Presently, The Herd has bolted from the stock market pushing stock prices below historical value. This could be a Tinkerbell Snowglobes in a lifetime gift for the valuation based investor. I call The Herd’s present movement the “Flight to Safety” Bubble. I am moving away from The Herd once again as I dollar cost average into a very diversified portfolio of blue chip, market leading companies that hold no debt. I would Head East Guitar Tabs to hold a large position in the stock market by the middle of 2009. That is if The Herd lets me. The 5.9% returns for my retirement portfolio are as solid now as money in the bank.
This brings up the problem with the present financial and economic models. They don’t reflect the behavioral nature of the markets. I am behavioral economist so everything that is happening today seems to make sense given the market’s Herd based mentality. There are many historical examples. The most extreme example came during the Great Depression. In 1929 you were considered a fool if you weren’t invested in the market. Shoeshine boys were giving stock tips and people were listening to them. This was the worst time in history to buy stocks. But if the valuation based investor had saved his capital and invested in the “Dow Jones average” in 1933, his investments would have blasted off like a rocket ending with a 400% gain. The best run the in history of the Dow. Of course I would not have invested in the Dow at the time, I would have selected a diversified basket of Blue Chip companies with little or no debt. The long term gains could have been astronomical.
Bonds
Bonds have seemed overvalued to me for a long time. In 2007 The Herd could not get enough Bonds. The risk premium on all Bonds was pushed lower than Zebra Handbags any time in history. The Herd saw blue sky forever into the future. At the time CD’s were paying close to the yield of corporate bonds, so I bought CD’s.
In mid 2008 The Herd sensed fear and darted to safety. This callapsed the credit market which was a large shock to our country’s banking system. The Herd moved almost immediately from unabashed greed to abject fear. A paradigm shift of this magnitude is as shocking as a bucket of cold water from behind on a hot day. But for the diversified value investor that avoids The Herd, the cool water can be refreshing.
I have been buying into a diversified portfolio of closed end high yield bond funds. As I purchased these investments in November they were priced at depression era values with most funds being “discounted” by over 30% and paying yields of 15% or more. It may seem counterintuitive but in December these high yield bond funds, because of The Herd’s market distortion, have less risk than 10 Year Treasury Bonds.
Historically the Glass Panel Pillar Chandelier Pottery Barn Year Treasury Bond has been the bastion of safety for investors. The Herd has changed this standard with it’s present short term thinking. Now as the “Flight to Safety Bubble” is continuing, I am shorting the 10 Year Treasury Bond. I began shorting as the yield went below 3%. This has become my biggest individual investment, about 8.8% of my retirement portfolio. My cost basis is presently at a yield to maturity of 2.3% but I might be tempted, although it is imprudent, to push my basis lower. Of course it depends on The Herd. In the long run these yields are impossible to maintain. Before this month the historical yield of the 10 Year Treasury has ranged from a low of 2.29% in 1954 to a high of 15.32% in 1982.
Real Estate
10 years ago I was a real estate perma “Bull”. Real estate was my love and my loved ones were tired of hearing about it. Then came the 2006 Real Estate Bubble. I am embarrassed to say it but I am happily renting a very nice house in Lafayette. I sold my primary residence in mid 2007 and probably won’t consider buying a new house until 2010. The Herd will make the decision for me. I am renting as a direct hedge against the frightening market distortion created by The Herd.
The housing market has no direct way to hedge the value of a primary residence other than renting. Economists Robert Schiller and Carl Case have created a market for Calls and Puts in 20 major cities in the United States that trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. There are very few trades of this investment so there is no real market yet. In the future, this market could be of considerable value to the prudent investor that wants to Hedge his sizable investment in his home. Presently, because of The Herd, the only way an investor can avoid the present economic turbulance in the real estate market is by renting.
The main reason I am renting is capital preservation but it is also much less expensive for the same product. My carrying cost for renting is $2000 less a month than buying a home. Moving is also less expensive. It would cost me over a $100,000 to sell one home and buy another in Lafayette.
It is important to note that when “renting a house” you must capture the profit of renting each month and invest it. My profit from renting can be moved to a down payment in the same way a home seller moves equity to a new home. There is only one added expense, the taxes on the profits from my “House Money Account”.
Some might suggest that I am not taking advantage of the benefits of getting deeply in debt. For my example above, let us assume that the tax benefit a normal person receives is equal to the lost earnings on a 20% down payment. Also, let us assume that the real estate taxes are equal to the yearly destruction of the structure. By “netting” out these two sets of variables, Dolce Gabana Giraffe Print Handbags can focus on the cash flow of my example above. For a lot of people in Lafayette the situation is more complicated. The AMT tax wipes out a good deal of the tax benefits of “renting the money” to purchase a home.
People tend to move once ever 5.5 years. After 5 years of paying interest on “money rental”, a debtor has paid off 4.4% of the principle. 83% of the principle of a 30 year mortgage is paid in the final 15 years of the loan. Most owners never make a dent in the principle amount while being homeowners.
In 1982 homeowners on average had 70% equity in their homes. Back then people really did “own their homes”. The 3rd quarter Federal Reserve figures show that homeowners as a group own just 44.7% of their homes. Owner equity will keep trending downward for the next few years. Also, it is estimated that over 10 million homeowners in this country have negative equity. There are 4 million vacant homes on the market, a record high. The “Shadow” inventory of homes waiting for prices to stabilize could increase the inventory figure by a million more homes. Increases in household income and increases in rent are the main drivers of house price increases. Unfortunately both are trending lower. All market indicators show that house prices are above historical value. One of the few bright spots for The Herd is that “interest rates will never be lower”.
Debt
Debt can be a tool or a time bomb. The Herd tends to confuse the purchase of a house with the purchase of debt. To me they are two separate balance sheet items. If an investor is going to use a large amount of debt to leverage an investment, then he better make sure that he is buying an asset below historical value. Today, The Herd is buying houses that are above the average historical value, by over leveraging themselves in a highly uncertain economy.
The Herd is making an imprudent bet on low interest rates. Interest rates only affect home value in the short run and real estate is a long term investment. I would like to say it one more time for emphasis. When purchasing a home, the interest rate portion is a short term bet and buying the real estate is a long term investment. Presently The herd is ignoring every other financial and economic indicator and is laser focused on low interest rates. Their mantra has turned to mania by saying: “buy now, interest rates will never be lower.” I have worked the numbers in just about every situation and this statement does not make financial sense. When I purchase a house, I would rather buy a $653,951 home in an 8% loan environment than a $800,000 home in a 6% loan environment. When mortgage rates increase from 6% to 8% then the price of the home needs to decrease 18.26% so the future owner can have the same payments. With my decision to rent, I am making an unleveraged hedge that interest rates will go up in the future. The Herd is making a highly leveraged bet that interest rates will stay at these historically low rates continuously until they decide to sell their home. I would like to put it in perspective in my own situation. Suppose I bought an $800,000 home in Lafayette, 20% down at 6%, then my payment would be $3,840 a month. Next, assume that I sell in 5 years in an 8% interest rate environment. 8% is not unrealistic. Mortgage interest rates have varied from 5.23% to 18.45% over the last 30 years. They have spent a lot more time at 8% than at 6%. For the future buyer to have the same $3,840 payment then I would have to discount the house to $653,951. Of course there are many other financial variables in considering the purchase of a home. Presently The Herd is ignoring all of them except this one. The Herd is suggesting that a buyer make a bet on interest rates with a possible loss of $146,049 and no chance of gain because, “interest rates can’t go any lower.” I would suggest that The Herd should change their mantra to: “interest rates will never be higher than now.” Then the statement would make more sense.
Valuation Investing
The Federal Reserve and The Herd are pushing our economy and the investment markets in extreme directions. Profits and losses that historically could take many years to come to fruition can unwind in weeks. The Herd’s momentum investing will always make winners of those entering a Bubble Market early. But the majority of the investors that follow will loose capital.
I have been a contrarian of the financial markets for years, not by choice but as a reaction to the market distortions created by The Herd. Many people will read my investment choices above and disagree with my thinking. My thinking is different than what is purported by “the media” and “financial experts”. To a degree, I measure my investment choices by how many people disagree with my thinking. In late 2006 I received violent reactions to my discretely questioning valuations in the housing market. It was difficult charting the biggest bubble that I had ever seen and not being able to talk about it. This reaction from others cemented my decision to rent for a Nutrisystem In Willow Grove Pa Presently the perceptions of The Herd are changing. The Herd appears to be accepting the present situation. I am using this as a reference point. Once the news media and the public start saying that housing is a bad investment this will be one of the indicators I use to motivate me to purchase a home. Of course the biggest factor will be value. As a behavioral economist I have seen these market paradigm shifts ebb and flow for so long, it is as common to me as the ocean tides.
My only investment advice to the reader would be: save more, spend less, use debt wisely, buy investments at below average historical value and diversify your investments. This could make your life more worry free and will make our country’s financial future less turbulent.
Charlie of Discount Tax Corporation - December 2008
My thoughts above are for the entertainment of the reader and meant to provoke discussion and perhaps reflection. As I have tried to express above, I am worried about our country’s obsession with the short run. I believe we are ignoring our children’s future and the consequences of the long run. We are the, “I want it now generation.”
I started to quantify my present values 18 years ago during the 1990 Housing Bubble. That was when I started to question the numbers. I am an Accountant and also have a degree in Economics. I perform trend analysis on the economy for fun. Everything above is related to my own situation. I am not a licensed investment advisor so I would never presume to give anyone else investment advice. But, keep in mind that if you need tax advice, I will give you as much as you want for free. Just give me a call.